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28 Sep · 22:20 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
LOLukasz Oracz
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1504
3-1Final setsOracz won
MAMariusz Adamus
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1459
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Oracz at 52%. The actual result was Lukasz Oracz 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mariusz Adamus favoured — closing 1.6
Upset
Total 74.5
73 points played
Under
Set handicap
Mariusz Adamus −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Mariusz Adamus −3.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.6
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Lukasz Oracz is favoured to win, below means Mariusz Adamus.

▲ Lukasz Oraczpre 56% → final 95%
Mariusz Adamus ▼
Biggest swing 50 pts63 points · 3 games