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29 Sep · 05:35 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MMMaksymilian Miastowski
🇵🇱Maksymilian Miastowski
ELO 1764
3-1Final setsMiastowski won
GPGrzegorz Poliniewicz
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1677
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Miastowski at 61%. The actual result was Maksymilian Miastowski 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Maksymilian Miastowski favoured — closing 1.35
Favourite won
Total 77.5
80 points played
Over
Set handicap
Maksymilian Miastowski −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Maksymilian Miastowski −5.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
3.45
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Maksymilian Miastowski is favoured to win, below means Grzegorz Poliniewicz.

▲ Maksymilian Miastowskipre 58% → final 99%
Grzegorz Poliniewicz ▼
Biggest swing 59 ptsMiastowski recovered from 40%72 points · 4 games