29 Sept · 09:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1436
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Baron
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1474
FormLLLWL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vincenec🌟Baron goes over total as favourite 64% (77)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H21-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.