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30 Sep · 06:55 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
AWAdrian Wiecek
🇵🇱Adrian Wiecek
ELO 1818
3-1Final setsWiecek won
MJMarcin Jadczyk
🇵🇱Marcin Jadczyk
ELO 1822
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Jadczyk at 52%. The actual result was Adrian Wiecek 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Marcin Jadczyk favoured — closing 1.75
Upset
Total 75.5
83 points played
Over
Set handicap
Marcin Jadczyk −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Marcin Jadczyk −1.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.45
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Adrian Wiecek is favoured to win, below means Marcin Jadczyk.

▲ Adrian Wiecekpre 44% → final 95%
Marcin Jadczyk ▼
Biggest swing 57 ptsWiecek recovered from 39%72 points · 4 games