30 Sept · 15:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AW
🇵🇱Adrian Wiecek
ELO 1818
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jadczyk
MJ
🇵🇱Marcin Jadczyk
ELO 1822
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
🌟Wiecek goes over total as underdog 63% (116)
Fair odds · Jadczyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H53-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.