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30 Sep · 11:15 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
AWAdrian Wiecek
🇵🇱Adrian Wiecek
ELO 1818
1-3Final setsMiastowski won
MMMaksymilian Miastowski
🇵🇱Maksymilian Miastowski
ELO 1773
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Wiecek at 56%. The actual result was Maksymilian Miastowski 1-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Adrian Wiecek favoured — closing 1.55
Upset
Total 77.5
79 points played
Over
Set handicap
Adrian Wiecek −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Adrian Wiecek −3.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Adrian Wiecek is favoured to win, below means Maksymilian Miastowski.

▲ Adrian Wiecekpre 53% → final 98%
Maksymilian Miastowski ▼
Biggest swing 65 ptsWiecek recovered from 33%72 points · 4 games