30 Sept · 17:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Kaczynski
ELO 1534
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kaczynski
KJ
🇵🇱Krzysztof Juszczyk
ELO 1528
FormWLWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Kaczynski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H6-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.