30 Sept · 17:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1524
FormWWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Nocun
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1578
FormWWWWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+54
H2H13-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+54)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-7)