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30 Sep · 01:30 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
KKKacper Kwiatkowski
🇵🇱Kacper Kwiatkowski
ELO 1475
3-2Final setsKwiatkowski won
GMGrzegorz Mucha
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1524
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Mucha at 54%. The actual result was Kacper Kwiatkowski 3-2 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Kacper Kwiatkowski favoured — closing 1.75
Favourite won
Total 74.5
104 points played
Over
Set handicap
Kacper Kwiatkowski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Kacper Kwiatkowski −1.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
4.8
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Kacper Kwiatkowski is favoured to win, below means Grzegorz Mucha.

▲ Kacper Kwiatkowskipre 49% → final 89%
Grzegorz Mucha ▼
Biggest swing 69 ptsKwiatkowski recovered from 29%72 points · 5 games