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30 Sep · 04:30 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MLMikolaj Lukaszewski
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1377
3-2Final setsLukaszewski won
KSKarol Sulkowski
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1330
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Lukaszewski at 52%. The actual result was Mikolaj Lukaszewski 3-2 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Karol Sulkowski favoured — closing 1.65
Upset
Total 75.5
91 points played
Over
Set handicap
Karol Sulkowski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Karol Sulkowski −2.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
5.2
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mikolaj Lukaszewski is favoured to win, below means Karol Sulkowski.

▲ Mikolaj Lukaszewskipre 49% → final 95%
Karol Sulkowski ▼
Biggest swing 49 pts72 points · 5 games