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30 Sep · 04:50 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MLMarian Lebek
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1575
0-3Final setsKaczmarek won
JKJakub Kaczmarek
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1427
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Lebek at 66%. The actual result was Jakub Kaczmarek 0-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Marian Lebek favoured — closing 1.32
Upset
Total 73.5
58 points played
Under
Set handicap
Marian Lebek −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Marian Lebek −7.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Marian Lebek is favoured to win, below means Jakub Kaczmarek.

▲ Marian Lebekpre 64% → final 2%
Jakub Kaczmarek ▼
Biggest swing 74 ptsKaczmarek recovered from 25%56 points · 3 games