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30 Sep · 05:35 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
GPGrzegorz Poliniewicz
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1676
1-3Final setsJarocki won
LJLukasz Jarocki
🇵🇱Lukasz Jarocki
ELO 1696
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Jarocki at 51%. The actual result was Lukasz Jarocki 1-3 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Lukasz Jarocki favoured — closing 1.65
Favourite won
Total 78.5
80 points played
Over
Set handicap
Lukasz Jarocki −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Lukasz Jarocki −2.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Grzegorz Poliniewicz is favoured to win, below means Lukasz Jarocki.

▲ Grzegorz Poliniewiczpre 53% → final 5%
Lukasz Jarocki ▼
Biggest swing 52 pts72 points · 4 games