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30 Sep · 10:55 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MRMateusz Rutkowski
🇵🇱Mateusz Rutkowski
ELO 1650
2-3Final setsJarocki won
LJLukasz Jarocki
🇵🇱Lukasz Jarocki
ELO 1696
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Jarocki at 54%. The actual result was Lukasz Jarocki 2-3 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Lukasz Jarocki favoured — closing 1.47
Favourite won
Total 73.5
94 points played
Over
Set handicap
Lukasz Jarocki −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Lukasz Jarocki −5.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mateusz Rutkowski is favoured to win, below means Lukasz Jarocki.

▲ Mateusz Rutkowskipre 49% → final 4%
Lukasz Jarocki ▼
Biggest swing 59 ptsJarocki recovered from 41%72 points · 5 games