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30 Sep · 12:20 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
BMBoguslaw Madej
🇵🇱Boguslaw Madej
ELO 1394
3-0Final setsMadej won
RGRafal Gajda
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1452
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Gajda at 64%. The actual result was Boguslaw Madej 3-0 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Rafal Gajda favoured — closing 1.47
Upset
Total 76.5
60 points played
Under
Set handicap
Rafal Gajda −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Rafal Gajda −4.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-0 at close
10.5
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Boguslaw Madej is favoured to win, below means Rafal Gajda.

▲ Boguslaw Madejpre 38% → final 99%
Rafal Gajda ▼
Biggest swing 76 ptsMadej recovered from 23%58 points · 3 games