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30 Sep · 12:10 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
GPGrzegorz Poliniewicz
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1676
3-2Final setsPoliniewicz won
LJLukasz Jarocki
🇵🇱Lukasz Jarocki
ELO 1696
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Jarocki at 53%. The actual result was Grzegorz Poliniewicz 3-2 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Lukasz Jarocki favoured — closing 1.65
Upset
Total 78.5
98 points played
Over
Set handicap
Lukasz Jarocki −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Lukasz Jarocki −2.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
4.7
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Grzegorz Poliniewicz is favoured to win, below means Lukasz Jarocki.

▲ Grzegorz Poliniewiczpre 50% → final 4%
Lukasz Jarocki ▼
Biggest swing 50 pts72 points · 4 games