30 Sept · 15:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1466
FormLWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Sikon
MS
🇵🇱Mateusz Sikon
ELO 1516
FormWWLWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Sikon
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.59· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H5-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-2)