30 Sept · 15:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LJ
🇵🇱Lukasz Jarocki
ELO 1696
FormLWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Jarocki
AS
🇵🇱Adrian Spychala
ELO 1644
FormWWLWL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Jarocki
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+52
H2H37-32
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (37-32)