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30 Sep · 21:05 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
DPDawid Poloszczanski
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1357
0-3Final setsKowalczyk won
MKMarcin Kowalczyk
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1337
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Poloszczanski at 55%. The actual result was Marcin Kowalczyk 0-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Dawid Poloszczanski favoured — closing 1.75
Upset
Set handicap
Dawid Poloszczanski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Dawid Poloszczanski −1.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Dawid Poloszczanski is favoured to win, below means Marcin Kowalczyk.

▲ Dawid Poloszczanskipre 52% → final 96%
Marcin Kowalczyk ▼
Biggest swing 80 ptsPoloszczanski recovered from 16%72 points · 5 games