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01 Oct · 02:20 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MJMichal Jozefiak
🇵🇱Michal Jozefiak
ELO 1503
3-2Final setsJozefiak won
MLMarian Lebek
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1558
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Lebek at 57%. The actual result was Michal Jozefiak 3-2 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Lebek favoured — closing 1.6
Upset
Total 75.5
100 points played
Over
Set handicap
Lebek −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Lebek −2.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
5.2
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Michal Jozefiak is favoured to win, below means Marian Lebek.

▲ Michal Jozefiakpre 46% → final 95%
Marian Lebek ▼
Biggest swing 84 ptsJozefiak recovered from 11%72 points · 5 games