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01 Oct · 08:20 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
RNRafal Niemiec
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1541
1-3Final setsSkotniczny won
RSRafal Skotniczny
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1615
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Skotniczny at 58%. The actual result was Rafal Skotniczny 1-3 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Rafal Skotniczny favoured — closing 1.65
Favourite won
Total 74.5
79 points played
Over
Set handicap
Rafal Skotniczny −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Rafal Skotniczny −2.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Rafal Niemiec is favoured to win, below means Rafal Skotniczny.

▲ Rafal Niemiecpre 45% → final 9%
Rafal Skotniczny ▼
Biggest swing 57 ptsSkotniczny recovered from 39%72 points · 4 games