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01 Oct · 12:20 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
RSRafal Skotniczny
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1635
3-2Final setsSkotniczny won
RNRafal Niemiec
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1555
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Skotniczny at 57%. The actual result was Rafal Skotniczny 3-2 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Rafal Niemiec favoured — closing 1.8
Upset
Total 75.5
98 points played
Over
Set handicap
Rafal Niemiec −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Rafal Niemiec −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
4.9
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Rafal Skotniczny is favoured to win, below means Rafal Niemiec.

▲ Rafal Skotnicznypre 54% → final 91%
Rafal Niemiec ▼
Biggest swing 58 ptsSkotniczny recovered from 38%72 points · 4 games