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01 Oct · 13:10 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
RNRafal Niemiec
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1555
3-1Final setsNiemiec won
JKJakub Kaczmarek
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1422
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Niemiec at 63%. The actual result was Rafal Niemiec 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Rafal Niemiec favoured — closing 1.5
Favourite won
Total 76.5
74 points played
Under
Set handicap
Rafal Niemiec −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Rafal Niemiec −4.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
3.55
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Rafal Niemiec is favoured to win, below means Jakub Kaczmarek.

▲ Rafal Niemiecpre 61% → final 100%
Jakub Kaczmarek ▼
Biggest swing 68 ptsNiemiec recovered from 32%67 points · 4 games