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01 Oct · 14:15 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
GPGrzegorz Poliniewicz
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1654
3-1Final setsPoliniewicz won
MKMaciej Kolek
🇵🇱Maciej Kolek
ELO 1627
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Poliniewicz at 53%. The actual result was Grzegorz Poliniewicz 3-1 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Grzegorz Poliniewicz favoured — closing 1.6
Favourite won
Total 79.5
77 points played
Under
Set handicap
Grzegorz Poliniewicz −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Grzegorz Poliniewicz −2.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.2
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Grzegorz Poliniewicz is favoured to win, below means Maciej Kolek.

▲ Grzegorz Poliniewiczpre 50% → final 78%
Maciej Kolek ▼
Biggest swing 61 ptsPoliniewicz recovered from 35%72 points · 4 games