1 Oct · 22:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1558
FormWLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Tkocz
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1562
FormWLWLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 47% · 2.11· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H34-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.