2 Oct · 00:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1542
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1553
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H27-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.