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03 Oct · 06:30 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MLMikolaj Lukaszewski
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1324
3-1Final setsLukaszewski won
DPDawid Poloszczanski
🇵🇱Dawid Poloszczanski
ELO 1343
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Poloszczanski at 54%. The actual result was Mikolaj Lukaszewski 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Mikolaj Lukaszewski favoured — closing 1.8
Favourite won
Total 76.5
81 points played
Over
Set handicap
Mikolaj Lukaszewski −1.5 sets
Covered
Points handicap
Mikolaj Lukaszewski −0.5 points
Covered
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.3
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mikolaj Lukaszewski is favoured to win, below means Dawid Poloszczanski.

▲ Mikolaj Lukaszewskipre 49% → final 89%
Dawid Poloszczanski ▼
Biggest swing 75 ptsLukaszewski recovered from 14%72 points · 4 games