3 Oct · 09:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DW
🇵🇱Dariusz Wrobel
ELO 1339
FormLLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Maruszak
PM
🇵🇱Piotr Maruszak
ELO 1390
FormLWLWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Maruszak
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+51
H2H5-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+51)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-2)