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03 Oct · 08:00 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MKMariusz Koczyba
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1515
3-1Final setsKoczyba won
PPPawel Polok
🇵🇱Pawel Polok
ELO 1598
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Polok at 61%. The actual result was Mariusz Koczyba 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Pawel Polok favoured — closing 1.32
Upset
Total 74.5
72 points played
Under
Set handicap
Pawel Polok −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Pawel Polok −7.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
7.25
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mariusz Koczyba is favoured to win, below means Pawel Polok.

▲ Mariusz Koczybapre 42% → final 94%
Pawel Polok ▼
Biggest swing 66 ptsKoczyba recovered from 28%70 points · 4 games