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03 Oct · 10:10 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MZMariusz Zwolinski
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1355
3-2Final setsZwolinski won
JRJaroslaw Rolak
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1319
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Zwolinski at 52%. The actual result was Mariusz Zwolinski 3-2 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Rolak favoured — closing 1.8
Upset
Total 79.5
89 points played
Over
Set handicap
Rolak −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Rolak −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Over
Exact score
market priced 3-2 at close
4.35
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Mariusz Zwolinski is favoured to win, below means Jaroslaw Rolak.

▲ Mariusz Zwolinskipre 56% → final 100%
Jaroslaw Rolak ▼
Biggest swing 48 pts54 points · 3 games