3 Oct · 20:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Mucha
ELO 1483
FormLLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Mucha
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Pyrek
ELO 1440
FormWWLWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Mucha
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)