3 Oct · 21:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1460
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gesiarz
DP
🇵🇱Dawid Pyrek
ELO 1440
FormWWLWL
52%
48%
🌟Gesiarz stays under total as favourite 63% (54)
Fair odds · Gesiarz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.