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04 Oct · 04:50 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
HTHenryk Tkaczyk
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1614
3-1Final setsTkaczyk won
PZPiotr Zemla
🇵🇱Piotr Zemla
ELO 1606
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Zemla at 50%. The actual result was Henryk Tkaczyk 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Piotr Zemla favoured — closing 1.65
Upset
Total 73.5
77 points played
Over
Set handicap
Piotr Zemla −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Piotr Zemla −2.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.3
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Henryk Tkaczyk is favoured to win, below means Piotr Zemla.

▲ Henryk Tkaczykpre 54% → final 89%
Piotr Zemla ▼
Biggest swing 62 ptsTkaczyk recovered from 37%72 points · 4 games