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05 Oct · 03:00 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
GPGrzegorz Poliniewicz
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1644
3-1Final setsPoliniewicz won
KKKrzysztof Kapik
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1636
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Kapik at 51%. The actual result was Grzegorz Poliniewicz 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Poliniewicz favoured — closing 1.75
Favourite won
Total 75.5
71 points played
Under
Set handicap
Poliniewicz −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Poliniewicz −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.25
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Grzegorz Poliniewicz is favoured to win, below means Krzysztof Kapik.

▲ Grzegorz Poliniewiczpre 45% → final 95%
Krzysztof Kapik ▼
Biggest swing 60 ptsPoliniewicz recovered from 39%70 points · 4 games