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05 Oct · 21:00 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
MZMarcin Zielinski
🇵🇱Marcin Zielinski
ELO 1601
1-3Final setsTkaczyk won
HTHenryk Tkaczyk
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1643
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Tkaczyk at 53%. The actual result was Henryk Tkaczyk 1-3 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Marcin Zielinski favoured — closing 1.51
Upset
Total 75.5
62 points played
Under
Set handicap
Marcin Zielinski −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Marcin Zielinski −4.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Marcin Zielinski is favoured to win, below means Henryk Tkaczyk.

▲ Marcin Zielinskipre 43% → final 99%
Henryk Tkaczyk ▼
Biggest swing 60 ptsZielinski recovered from 40%68 points · 4 games