5 Oct · 04:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Mateusz Sikon
ELO 1458
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Ruszkiewicz
AR
🇵🇱Adam Ruszkiewicz
ELO 1486
FormWLLLL
47%
53%
🌟Ruszkiewicz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 6% (17)
Fair odds · Ruszkiewicz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.