5 Oct · 07:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DK
🇵🇱Daniel Kostal
ELO 1585
FormWWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kapik
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1631
FormLLLWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kostal🌟Kostal covers set handicap as underdog 63% (41)
Fair odds · Kapik
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+46
H2H2-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)