5 Oct · 07:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1643
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Poliniewicz
MM
🇵🇱Michal Malachowski
ELO 1621
FormLWLWL
52%
48%
🌟Poliniewicz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (17)
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 1.98· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H19-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.