5 Oct · 07:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MZ
🇵🇱Mariusz Zwolinski
ELO 1353
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Warpas
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1362
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.