05 Oct · 07:10 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1505
3-1Final setsPelka won
PP
🇵🇱Pawel Polok
ELO 1582
What the model said
Before the match, the model favoured Polok at 59%. The actual result was Jerzy Pelka 3-1 — the underdog won.
How the markets settled
The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.
Match winner
Pawel Polok favoured — closing 1.6
Total 74.5
87 points played
Set handicap
Pawel Polok −1.5 sets
Points handicap
Pawel Polok −3.5 points
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
Win probability
Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Jerzy Pelka is favoured to win, below means Pawel Polok.
▲ Jerzy Pelkapre 44% → final 87%
Pawel Polok ▼
Biggest swing 56 ptsPelka recovered from 44%72 points · 4 games