5 Oct · 10:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1645
FormWLLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Sklensky
MS
🇵🇱Miroslav Sklensky
ELO 1712
FormWLWLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Sklensky
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 75% · 1.34· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+67
H2H46-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (46-12)