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05 Oct · 10:05 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
MMMichal Malachowski
🇵🇱Michal Malachowski
ELO 1645
3-0Final setsMalachowski won
GPGrzegorz Poliniewicz
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1657
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Poliniewicz at 53%. The actual result was Michal Malachowski 3-0 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Grzegorz Poliniewicz favoured — closing 1.6
Upset
Total 79.5
62 points played
Under
Set handicap
Grzegorz Poliniewicz −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Grzegorz Poliniewicz −2.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-0 at close
8
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Michal Malachowski is favoured to win, below means Grzegorz Poliniewicz.

▲ Michal Malachowskipre 50% → final 89%
Grzegorz Poliniewicz ▼
Biggest swing 93 ptsMalachowski recovered from 2%72 points · 5 games