5 Oct · 15:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1652
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sklensky
MS
🇵🇱Miroslav Sklensky
ELO 1690
FormLLWWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Sklensky
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H46-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.