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05 Oct · 16:55 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
KGKuba Golaszewski
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1308
3-1Final setsGolaszewski won
MKMarcin Kowalczyk
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1345
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Kowalczyk at 55%. The actual result was Kuba Golaszewski 3-1 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Marcin Kowalczyk favoured — closing 1.6
Upset
Total 74.5
81 points played
Over
Set handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −3.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-1 at close
4.65
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Kuba Golaszewski is favoured to win, below means Marcin Kowalczyk.

▲ Kuba Golaszewskipre 41% → final 88%
Marcin Kowalczyk ▼
Biggest swing 65 ptsGolaszewski recovered from 30%72 points · 4 games