5 Oct · 22:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1459
FormWLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kubiak
AK
🇵🇱Artur Kubiak
ELO 1507
FormWWWWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Kubiak
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+48
H2H5-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-0)