5 Oct · 22:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1308
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sulkowski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1322
FormLLLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 65% · 1.53· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H18-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.