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05 Oct · 23:20 UTC · Final✓ Prediction correct
BKBartosz Kwodawski
🇵🇱Bartosz Kwodawski
ELO 1361
3-0Final setsKwodawski won
MKMarcin Kowalczyk
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1323
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Kwodawski at 53%. The actual result was Bartosz Kwodawski 3-0 — the pick was correct.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Marcin Kowalczyk favoured — closing 1.7
Upset
Total 75.5
54 points played
Under
Set handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Marcin Kowalczyk −0.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Exact score
market priced 3-0 at close
11
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Bartosz Kwodawski is favoured to win, below means Marcin Kowalczyk.

▲ Bartosz Kwodawskipre 57% → final 100%
Marcin Kowalczyk ▼
Biggest swing 75 ptsKwodawski recovered from 25%72 points · 5 games