6 Oct · 09:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Michal Malachowski
ELO 1654
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Malachowski
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1637
FormWLLLL
52%
48%
🌟Malachowski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (86)
Fair odds · Malachowski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H20-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.