6 Oct · 09:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KW
🇵🇱Krzysztof Wloczko
ELO 1740
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Wloczko
PC
🇵🇱Piotr Chodorski
ELO 1713
FormWWWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chodorski🌟Chodorski covers set handicap as underdog 67% (15)
Fair odds · Wloczko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 37% · 2.72· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.