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06 Oct · 08:20 UTC · Final✕ Prediction missed
KSKamil Smolka
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1523
1-3Final setsMadej won
BMBoguslaw Madej
🇵🇱Boguslaw Madej
ELO 1404
What the model said

Before the match, the model favoured Smolka at 65%. The actual result was Boguslaw Madej 1-3 — the underdog won.

How the markets settled

The closing bookmaker lines vs the actual result — from the favourite's side. Descriptive, not a tip.

Match winner
Kamil Smolka favoured — closing 1.4
Upset
Total 75.5
75 points played
Under
Set handicap
Kamil Smolka −1.5 sets
No cover
Points handicap
Kamil Smolka −5.5 points
No cover
Total sets 4.5
over / under
Under
Win probability

Point by point, how the match win chance swung — same model as our highlight videos. Above the line means Kamil Smolka is favoured to win, below means Boguslaw Madej.

▲ Kamil Smolkapre 70% → final 0%
Boguslaw Madej ▼
Biggest swing 89 ptsMadej recovered from 11%72 points · 4 games