6 Oct · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MO
🇵🇱Michal Olbrycht
ELO 1640
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Malachowski
MM
🇵🇱Michal Malachowski
ELO 1647
FormLLWLL
49%
51%
🌟Malachowski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (86)
Fair odds · Malachowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.25· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.